• Posted January 15, 2026

Obamacare Enrollment Drops After Premium Subsidies Expire

Fewer Americans are signing up for Obamacare this year after extra financial help that lowered monthly premiums expired, new counts show.

As of early January, 22.8 million people had enrolled in Affordable Care Act (ACA) health plans for coverage starting Jan. 1. That’s down from 24.2 million people who were enrolled by the end of last year’s sign-up period.

The drop follows the end of enhanced subsidies, which were first introduced during the COVID-19 pandemic. 

Those subsidies helped millions of people pay less for health insurance.

So far, enrollment is about 800,000 lower than at the same point last year. Compared with last year’s final total, enrollment is down by roughly 1.4 million people. 

Open enrollment remains open through Thursday in most states. After that, people must have had a major life change, such as a job loss, birth or marriage, in order to enroll. 

Health policy expect the decline to grow in coming months. Many folks were automatically re-enrolled in their plans and may drop coverage once they see higher bills.

“It’s really too soon to tell,” said Cynthia Cox, senior vice president at KFF, a nonprofit group that studies the ACA. She told The New York Times  that while early numbers were better than expected, the final tally will not be known for months.

The Trump administration says higher prices are not the main reason fewer people signed up. 

Andrew Nixon, a spokesperson for the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS), said the drop is mostly due to stricter rules meant to stop fake or improper enrollments.

The reduction, he said, “is largely due to (the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services) cracking down on fake and improper marketplace enrollments.”

Still, the end of the subsidies has had a major financial impact. Without them, average insurance costs have doubled, according to estimates. 

The Congressional Budget Office predicts that 2 million more Americans will be uninsured this year as a result, although some experts expect the total could be much higher.

“I don’t think this is the final number,” Adrianna McIntyre, an assistant professor of health policy at Harvard University T.H. Chan School of Public Health, told The Times.

She expects enrollment to fall by several million more in the months ahead.

Lawmakers have debated ways to restore some of the financial help, but no one has reached an agreement. The House of Representatives passed a bill to extend the subsidies, but the Senate rejected a nearly identical proposal. 

What's more, a bipartisan group of senators is still discussing a compromise, although those details are still unclear.

President Donald Trump has sent mixed signals on the issue. While the White House previously suggested it might support extending the subsidies, Trump said recently he may veto such legislation.

Consumers can still enroll in ACA plans through Thursday, with coverage beginning Feb. 1. After that, most people will have to wait until next year to sign up.

More information

HealthCare.gov has more on the Affordable Care Act.

SOURCE: The New York Times, Jan. 15, 2026